Incidence trends and survival prediction of urothelial cancer of the bladder: a population-based study

Abstract Background The aim of this study is to determine the incidence trends urothelial cancer bladder (UCB) and develop a nomogram for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) postsurgery UCB at population-based level based on SEER database. Methods age-adjusted diagnosed from 1975 2016 was extracted, its annual percentage change calculated joinpoint regression analysis performed. A constructed CSS in individual cases independent predictors. predictive performance evaluated using consistency index (C-index), net reclassification (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), calibration plot receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Results showed trend first increasing then decreasing 2016. However, overall increased over that time period. age diagnosis, ethnic group, insurance status, marital differentiated grade, AJCC stage, regional lymph nodes removed chemotherapy tumor size were prognostic factors UCB. these performed well, with C-index 0.823 close fit Its prediction ability better than existing system, NRI IDI values greater 0 ROC curves exhibiting good 3, 5, 8 years follow-up. Conclusions might be suitable clinical use improving accuracy long-term